Below is an analytical, data-centred assessment of the U.S. economy in 2025 under the Trump administration, focusing on the indicators you specified (US 10-year yield, Core Inflation, CPI, Core PCE, and Unemployment), comparisons with recent policy regimes (Obama and Biden), and what can be reasonably concluded about policy impact:
Gross domestic product (GDP), the featured measure of U.S. output.
Real GDP grew strongly in 2025, with a revised annualised 4.4% increase in Q3 2025, the fastest pace in roughly two years. (bea.gov)
This indicates continued expansion of economic output during the first year of the Trump administration.
Inflation across a basket of goods and services.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Core CPI (excluding food and energy) remained elevated in 2025:
CPI inflation around ~2.8% year-over-year by November 2025. (Deloitte)
Core CPI similarly elevated.
This suggests inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, but substantially lower than the pandemic-era peaks of 2022–2023.
United States Core PCE Price Index
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) Price Index measures the level of prices for goods and services purchased by U.S. consumers, excluding food and energy.
Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, was reported at ~2.8% in late 2025. (Trading Economics)
Federal Reserve projections had core PCE expectations in the ~2.7–3.1% range for 2025. (Federal Reserve)
Assessment
Inflation appears to have moderated compared with 2022–2023 peaks, yet remained stubbornly above the pre-COVID target level, suggesting incomplete monetary disinflation. The data align more with market and Federal Reserve monetary policy trends (e.g., rate adjustments and normalization) than direct fiscal stimulus effects from policy changes. Monetary policy (via the Fed) is separate from the administration but influences inflation outcomes heavily.
The unemployment rate is a central labour market indicator:
Unemployment was 4.4% in December 2025 and edged down slightly from recent peaks. (Trading Economics)
Employment gains slowed in 2025; job growth averaged around 49,000 new payrolls per month in 2025, far below the 168,000 average monthly gains in 2024. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Interpretation
This shows significant slowing of employment growth compared with recent years. The unemployment rate rising from around 4.0% at the start of 2025 to ~4.4–4.6% constitutes a weakening jobs market relative to the Biden years (where rates tightened from ~6.4% in 2021 to around 4.0% by end-2024). (Wikipedia)
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is the most important long-term interest rate in the world — it shapes borrowing costs, asset prices, and how markets interpret the economic outlook.
Long-term rates reflect inflation expectations, monetary policy stance, and investor sentiment:
10-year Treasury yields hovered around ~4.2–4.3% by late 2025/early 2026. (YCharts)
These levels are slightly lower than the highs seen earlier in 2025, and close to long-term historical averages.
Interpretation
Stable or slightly eased long-term rates can indicate markets anticipating lower inflation and/or lower future interest rates. This situation often reflects broader monetary policy expectations rather than direct fiscal policy mandates but can indirectly be influenced by fiscal stance and growth prospects.
Fiscal and regulatory policy under Trump (2025)
Implementation of significant tariffs on imported goods (including elevated tariffs and two-tier tariff structures). (Wikipedia)
These tariff policies have been associated with higher business and consumer costs, reduced hiring in manufacturing, and increased uncertainty according to several analyses. (Wikipedia)
United States Tax and budget actions
Some sources note executive actions and spending cuts aimed at deficit reduction, including reduced outlays and spending caps for 2026. (dlacalle.com)
Comparison with Obama and Biden policy effects
Obama and Biden administrations focused heavily on demand support and labour market recovery post-GFC/COVID, leading to significant employment growth and reductions in unemployment during their terms. (Wikipedia)
In contrast, 2025 data show labour market momentum slowing and unemployment rising modestly.
Monetary vs fiscal drivers
The Federal Reserve’s policy (targeting inflation via interest rates) appears central to inflation and yields outcomes. Fiscal actions under Trump in 2025 likely had smaller direct impact on headline inflation, while tariffs possibly contributed to price pressures in specific sectors.
United States Macro conditions in 2025 under Trump
Economic growth remained relatively robust (e.g., high annualised GDP growth in some quarters). (bea.gov)
Inflation and core inflation measures remained above the Fed’s 2% target, though below the pandemic peaks. (Trading Economics)
Unemployment rose moderately and employment growth slowed compared with earlier years. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Effect of policy vs trend
The moderation in inflation likely reflects ongoing disinflation from monetary tightening and market forces rather than any singular fiscal policy shift.
Rising unemployment and slower job growth suggest the broader economy is not currently outperforming trends established under prior administrations (e.g., strong job expansion under Biden as unemployment moved down sharply). (Wikipedia)
Growth in GDP and investment during 2025 could reflect cyclical recovery and private sector dynamics more than specific new policy stimuli.
United States Growth and Stability
The economy continued to expand in 2025, with strong quarterly GDP performance and moderate inflation trends.
United States Labour market
The unemployment increases and slower job gains under Trump indicate a softening job market compared with earlier recoveries.
United States Inflation and yields
Core inflation remains above target; rate trends reflect monetary policy expectations rather than direct fiscal policy impacts.
United States Policy effectiveness
There is no clear, empirically attributable shift showing that 2025 Trump policies alone caused stronger growth than would have occurred under previous continuations of Biden policies.
Certain policy features (e.g., tariffs) may have increased costs and uncertainty for businesses and households, and appear to worsen labour market conditions. (Wikipedia)
Broader macro outcomes appear more influenced by monetary policy, global conditions, and residual effects of prior administrations’ policies than by new Trump fiscal actions.
Economic Indicator: GDP Growth
Gross domestic product (GDP), the featured measure of U.S. output.
2026: Projected between 2.0% to 2.5% (moderate expansion)
2025: $31.10 trillion +4.4% (strong quarter-by-quarter gains)
2024: $29.30 trillion +2.4% (moderate growth)
2023: $27.81 trillion +3.4% (solid expansion)
2022: $26.05 trillion +1.3% (post-pandemic cooling)
2021: $23.73 trillion +5.8% (strong recovery)
2020: $21.38 trillion -0.9% (contraction)
Economic Indicator: CPI Inflation
Consumer Price Index (CPI) is inflation across a basket of goods and services.
2026: Projected between 2.5% to 3.1% (moderating, above target)
2025: 2.7% (December 12-month headline CPI)
2024: 2.9% (trend continued toward historical norms)
2023: 4.1% (inflation cooling)
2022: 8.0% (inflation peaked)
2021: 4.7% (inflation began rising as economy reopened)
2020: 1.2% (continuing low-inflation trend)
Economic Indicator: Core PCE Index
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index measures the level of prices for goods and services purchased by U.S. consumers, excluding food and energy. The Federal Reserve explicitly targets inflation in this measure, aiming for an average 2% rate over time.
2026: Projected between 2.1% and 2.8%
2025: 2.9%
2024: 2.9%
2023: 4.2%
2022: 5.3%
2021: 3.6%
2020: 1.4%
Economic Indicator: Unemployment
The unemployment rate is a central labour market indicator.
2026: Projected between 4.5% and 5.0%
2025: 4.4% (Further softening in hiring momentum)
2024: 4.0% (Gradual cooling as interest rates stayed high)
2023: 3.6% (Continued labour tightness)
2022: 3.6% (Labour market fully recovered; near 50-year lows)
2021: 5.4% (Strong recovery as economy reopened)
2020: 8.1% (Pandemic-driven job losses; worst labour shock since WWII)
Economic Indicator: 10-yr Treasury Yield
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is the most important long-term interest rate in the world — it shapes borrowing costs, asset prices, and how markets interpret the economic outlook.
2026: Projected between 4.0% and 4.5%
2025: 4.18%–4.26% (elevated but slightly lower than early-2025 peaks)
2024: 4.06% (higher yields amid continued inflation and tightening)
2023: 3.53% (yields rising with Fed tightening)
2022: 1.76% (start of rate-hike cycle)
2021: 1.08% (gradual recovery as markets anticipated reopening)
2020: 0.51% (historic lows during COVID flight-to-safety)
SPX: S&P 500 Index: 500 large caps - Market-cap - Core US benchmark
IXIC: Nasdaq Composite Index: Market-cap - Weighted - 3,000 equities
NYSE Composite Index: All NYSE stocks - Market-cap - NYSE-wide view
DJI: Dow Jones Industrial Average Index: 30 stocks - Price-weighted - Media reference
RUI: Russell 1000 Index: Large caps - Market-cap - Institutional benchmark
RUT: Russell 2000 Index: Small caps - Market-cap - Small-cap performance
Wilshire 5000 Index: Total US market - Market-cap - Total market exposure
S&P 500 Equal Weight Index: Large caps - Equal weight - Breadth analysis
S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES1!) - Core US market direction
Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures (NQ) - Growth and technology sensitivity
Russell 2000 E-mini Futures (RTY) - Small-cap and domestic growth signal
VIX Futures Index: Market fear expectations
US M2 Money Stock (M2) USD: The total supply of cash (liquid and near-liquid) money in the US economy.
US Gross Domestic Product % (GDP) Rate: Measures the total value of all goods and services.
US Gross Domestic Product $ (GDP) USD: Gross domestic product (GDP), the featured measure of U.S. output.
For 2026, real GDP growth is projected between 1.8% and 2.6% by major institutions like Vanguard and Goldman Sachs.
US Government Debt (USGD): The United States government debt. $38.5 trillion as of January 2026.
US Government Budget Ratio (USGBP): Payments received and payments made by the government.
US Consumer Price Index 2026 (CPI): Jan 2026 - Inflation across a basket of goods and services.
US Core Consumer Prices 2025 (CCP): Dec 2025 - Inflation across a basket of goods and services.
US Core Inflation Rate YoY % (CIR): Excludes volatile food and energy prices.
The PCE is the most important inflation metric for policy.
US Core PCE Price Index (PCE): Core Personal Consumption Expenditures.
US Core PCE Price Rate % (PCE): By product type, PCE can be classified into goods (35%) and services (65%).
Core PCE Index, is expected to stabilize near 2.60% by late 2026.
US Unemployment Rate %: Unemployment rate measures job seekers.
Analysts forecast this rate will hover between 4.2% and 4.4% through the end of 2026.
US 10-year yield: A proxy for mortgage rates and investor sentiment about the economy.
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